SET Portfolio Update April 2015
The first quarter of 2015 is in the books.
As I’ve pointed out before, the economic fallout from the drop in oil prices isn’t completely understood at this point.
Sure, it’s good for consumers when oil prices go down. But the ramp up of US oil production has been one of the primary drivers of the US economy in recent years.
The dramatic drop in oil prices is triggering layoffs at oil companies and all of the other companies that were catering to the oil business. There’s still more pain to come here.
The most recent employment numbers highlighted just how little some economists understand about the economy. It’s simply stunning how wrong these guys are more often than not.
They simply extrapolate what has been happening over the past few quarters out into the future. And the Fed is full of these same economists that don’t have a clue how to use common sense is setting monetary policy.
We’re seeing the Fed beat a hasty retreat back to a much more dovish commentary on interest rates after the latest jobs data.
Their hawkish talk on interest rates was clearly a bit premature given the weakness in the global economy, strength of the US Dollar, and lack of real wage growth in the US.
Nevertheless, we had a great quarter. We closed out three trades in the first quarter for double digit gains.
We sold Market Vectors Retail ETF $RTH on February 6th for a gain of 18.8% after holding the ETF for about three months…
We sold Powershares Dynamic Media Portfolio $PBS on February 17th for a gain of 16.1% after holding it for 17 months…
And we sold First Trust Health Care Alpha Dex Fund $FXH on February 27th for a gain of 17.8% after holding it for six months.
What’s more, we have several ETFs we’re still holding that continue to rack up gains.
Now, onto the updates…
. . . . PowerShares S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary Portfolio $PSCD – Buy
PSCD is our newest recommendation. This ETF is our proxy for restaurants. Grab your shares below $55.00 if you haven’t already done so. The price target is $66.50.
. . . . iShares Medical Devices ETF $IHI – Hold
IHI is fluctuating around our $120.00 buy up to price. We collected an 8.5 cent per share dividend on March 25th. Grab your shares below $120.00 if you haven’t already done so. The price target is $140.00.
. . . . Guggenheim S&P Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF $RHS – Hold
RHS just made a new high of $110.10 on Monday. We also collected a $0.583 per share dividend on March 20th. The price target is $122.00.
. . . . Market Vectors Gaming ETF $BJK – Buy
The correction among gaming stocks is slowing and nearing an inflection point. Casino stocks are clearly out of favor with investors. But today’s negative headlines are having a minimal impact on stock prices. In other words, BJK is nearing an inflection point. In fact, we’re up 1% on this trade. We’re into this trade at a great price. Buy BJK below $41.00. The price target is $55.00.
. . . . Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF $SMH – Hold
SMH has hit some technical resistance at the psychologically important NASDAQ 5,000. Don’t forget this is the first time the NASDASQ has been at these levels since the peak of the dot.com boom in 2000. Continue holding SMH for more upside. The price target is $71.00.
. . . . First Trust NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector Index Fund $QTEC – Hold
QTEC is in a similar position to SMH. These two tech ETFs have seen some profit taking at the end of the first quarter. But we should see renewed buying in the 2nd quarter that should drive the ETF toward our $50.00 price target.
. . . . Global X Social Media Index ETF $SOCL – Buy
SOCL has quietly been one of the top performing ETFs in the 1st quarter. It’s up an impressive 8% during Q1. This ETF is primed to be one of the top performing ETFs this year… Buy SOCL up to $20.00.
. . . . Financial Select Sector SPDR $XLF – Hold
XLF suffered though a disappointing first Q1. But we’re still up better than 14% on this trade. And expectations are low for Q1 earnings. Any upside surprise should help lift XLF toward my $29.00 price target for XLF. Continue holding for bigger gains.
. . . . Guggenheim Solar $TAN – Hold
Solar stocks exploded to the upside in the first quarter. TAN is up a whopping 36% in Q1. This rally isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. We’ll continue to ride this wave of bullish sentiment.
. . . . PowerShares Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment $PEJ – Hold
PEJ is currently trading for $37.24. The market’s next leg higher should take PEJ up to my $41.00 price target. Continue holding.
Action to Take
- Move RHS to Hold
Category: SET Portfolio Updates
